Issue 3 · Sunday, 12 July 2026
EU Candidates Weekly Brief
This was a modest week. The EU enlargement commissioner, Marta Kos, visited Montenegro and North Macedonia to review reform progress in each country. No chapter opened or closed and no conference was held, and our estimates for all ten candidates are unchanged from last week.
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This week
Montenegro · 9 July 2026
Enlargement commissioner visits Montenegro
The European Commission reported that Commissioner Marta Kos visited Montenegro over two days. She joined the celebrations for Montenegro Statehood Day with President Jakov Milatovic, met Prime Minister Milojko Spajic to review reform progress, and took part in a seabed cleanup in Kotor tied to nature protection reforms. She pressed for sustained reform momentum and cross-party unity to keep the country on its negotiating timeline. The page repeats that Montenegro has opened all 33 negotiating chapters and provisionally closed 16, and notes that member states have agreed to begin drafting its accession treaty. No chapter opened or closed and no conference was held during the visit.
North Macedonia · 8 July 2026
Enlargement commissioner visits North Macedonia
The European Commission reported that Commissioner Kos visited Skopje to review North Macedonia progress on its Reform Agenda. She met Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski and Deputy Prime Minister Bekim Sali on implementation of the agenda, Assembly President Afrim Gashi on cross-party support for EU reforms, and civil society and media representatives on rule of law reforms. The page states North Macedonia has received 142.1 million euros under the Reform and Growth Facility after delivering key reforms. No chapter opened and no conference was held during the visit.
The forecast
- Montenegromost advancedmost likely 2031
2028 to 2034 - Albaniamost likely 2032
2029 to 2036 - Moldovamost likely 2033
2029 to 2037 - Ukrainemost likely 2033
2029 to openwar - Serbiamost likely 2037
2031 to openstalled - North Macedoniamost likely 2037
2031 to openstalled
Each bar spans the earliest to the latest estimate, with the most likely year marked in blue. A bar that fades on the right has no firm upper bound, because of war or a political standstill. The scale starts at 2028.
Not on the clock
- Bosnia and Herzegovina. Candidate since December 2022. Negotiations have not formally opened: no negotiating framework adopted, no first conference held.
- Georgia. Candidate since December 2023. The accession process is on hold over concerns about democratic backsliding.
- Turkiye. Negotiations opened in 2005 but have been frozen since 2018, with no chapters moving.
- Kosovo. Applied in December 2022. A potential candidate, candidate status not yet granted.
What we are watching
- Ukraine and Moldova could open more negotiation clusters around the middle of July. No Council or Commission text confirms a date, and the Irish presidency has spoken only of one or perhaps two clusters before the summer break. We are holding this until a primary source confirms it.
- North Macedonia. Press reports say Commissioner Kos pressed for the constitutional amendments recognizing Bulgarians as the condition for a second intergovernmental conference. The Commission page on her visit does not state this, so we treat it as press reporting and not yet as data.
- Kosovo. The 30 June reform step under the Reform and Growth Facility still has no published Commission assessment. The Commission has said an assessment will follow later this month. We record nothing until it publishes.
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