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EU Candidates

Issue 1 · Sunday, 28 June 2026

EU Candidates Weekly Brief

Welcome to the first edition. Ukraine and Moldova opened the first cluster of EU accession negotiations this month, Montenegro closed two more chapters, and the forecast below shows where all ten candidates stand.

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This week

Ukraine · Moldova · 15 June 2026

Ukraine and Moldova open the fundamentals cluster

At their second accession conferences, both countries opened Cluster 1, the fundamentals. It covers the rule of law, democratic institutions, public administration, and the economic criteria, and groups five negotiating chapters: judiciary and fundamental rights (23), justice, freedom and security (24), public procurement (5), statistics (18), and financial control (32). The fundamentals are the first cluster opened and the last to close.

European Commission, Ukraine ↗Council of the EU, Moldova ↗

European Union · 18 to 19 June 2026

The European Council backs the openings

At its June meeting, the European Council welcomed both intergovernmental conferences and the opening of the fundamentals cluster on 15 June. Leaders said they look forward to opening the other clusters on a merit basis, and set a strategic discussion on enlargement and reforms for October 2026.

European Council conclusions (EUCO 8/26) ↗

Moldova · 22 June 2026

Second EU-Moldova summit in Brussels

Ursula von der Leyen, Antonio Costa, and Maia Sandu met for the second EU-Moldova summit. The EU set out support under Moldova's 1.9 billion euro Growth Plan for 2025 to 2027, including 232.7 million euros for road rehabilitation, 17 million euros for border infrastructure, and 11 million euros for resilience against hybrid attacks.

European External Action Service ↗

Montenegro · 15 June 2026

Montenegro closes two more chapters

At its 27th accession conference, Montenegro provisionally closed chapter 2 (free movement of workers) and chapter 28 (consumer and health protection). Sixteen of its 33 chapters are now provisionally closed, which keeps it the most advanced negotiator.

European External Action Service ↗

Kosovo · 17 June 2026

Kosovo holds its first Reform and Growth Facility committee

The EU and Kosovo held the first monitoring committee for the Reform and Growth Facility, reviewing reforms across public administration, the green and digital transition, the business environment, human capital, and fundamental rights. This is a funding and governance step under the Growth Plan. It does not open accession negotiations. Kosovo remains a potential candidate.

European External Action Service ↗

The forecast

  • Montenegromost advanced
    most likely 2031
    2028 to 2034
  • Albania
    most likely 2032
    2029 to 2036
  • Moldova
    most likely 2033
    2029 to 2037
  • Ukraine
    most likely 2033
    2029 to openwar
  • Serbia
    most likely 2036
    2030 to openstalled
  • North Macedonia
    most likely 2037
    2031 to openstalled

Each bar spans the earliest to the latest estimate, with the most likely year marked in blue. A bar that fades on the right has no firm upper bound, because of war or a political standstill. The scale starts at 2028.

Not on the clock

  • Bosnia and Herzegovina. Candidate since December 2022. Negotiations have not formally opened: no negotiating framework adopted, no first conference held.
  • Georgia. Candidate since December 2023. The accession process is on hold over concerns about democratic backsliding.
  • Turkiye. Negotiations opened in 2005 but have been frozen since 2018, with no chapters moving.
  • Kosovo. Applied in December 2022. A potential candidate, candidate status not yet granted.

What we are watching

  • The European Council's strategic discussion on enlargement is scheduled for October 2026. It has not happened yet, and no decisions are set before then.
  • Leaders said they look forward to opening the next negotiation clusters for Ukraine and Moldova on a merit basis. No dates have been set for those openings.
  • We have seen reports of European Parliament resolutions on Georgia and North Macedonia, and some national support figures. We could not confirm them against a primary text this week, so we are holding them until we can.

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MontenegroAlbaniaMoldovaUkraineSerbiaNorth MacedoniaBosnia and HerzegovinaGeorgiaTürkiyeKosovo

Sources

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