Випуск 4 · Sunday, 19 July 2026
EU Candidates Weekly Brief
The EU held four accession conferences on 14 July: it opened the external relations cluster with both Ukraine and Moldova, Albania provisionally closed its first three chapters, and Montenegro closed two more to reach eighteen of thirty-three. At the yearly level we report, only Albania's range shifts, its earliest possible year moving forward from 2029 to 2028.
Безкоштовно · Щонеділі · Отримуйте щотижневий огляд на пошту ↓
Цього тижня
Україна · 14 July 2026
EU opens a second cluster with Ukraine
The European Commission reported that the EU opened accession negotiations with Ukraine on the external relations cluster, cluster six. The cluster holds two chapters: chapter 30 on commercial policy and development cooperation, and chapter 31 on foreign, security and defence policy. This is Ukraine's second open cluster, one month after it opened cluster one, the fundamentals, in June.
Молдова · 14 July 2026
EU opens the same cluster with Moldova
On the same day the EU opened the external relations cluster with Moldova, also cluster six, covering chapter 30 on external relations and chapter 31 on foreign, security and defence policy. Ukraine and Moldova have moved through the process in step since both opened cluster one in June.
Албанія · 14 July 2026
Albania closes its first three chapters
At its ninth accession conference Albania and the EU provisionally closed their first chapters: chapter 25 on science and research, chapter 26 on education and culture, and chapter 30 on external relations. Albania had opened all of its clusters but had not closed a single chapter until this meeting. The three chapters sit outside the fundamentals cluster, which still carries most of the work ahead.
Чорногорія · 14 July 2026
Montenegro closes two more, reaching eighteen
At its 28th accession conference Montenegro provisionally closed chapter 8 on competition policy and chapter 29 on the customs union. That brings it to 18 of 33 chapters provisionally closed, more than half of the total. The Commission page describes Montenegro as the frontrunner in the process.
Прогноз
- Montenegromost advancedнайімовірніше 2031
2028 to 2034 - Albaniaнайімовірніше 2032
2028 to 2036 - Moldovaнайімовірніше 2033
2029 to 2037 - Ukraineнайімовірніше 2033
2029 to відкритийwar - Serbiaнайімовірніше 2037
2031 to відкритийstalled - North Macedoniaнайімовірніше 2037
2031 to відкритийstalled
Кожна смуга охоплює діапазон від найранішої до найпізнішої оцінки, а найімовірніший рік позначено синім. Розмитий правий край означає відсутність чіткої верхньої межі через війну або політичний застій. Шкала починається з 2028 року.
Поза графіком
- Bosnia and Herzegovina. Candidate since December 2022. Negotiations have not formally opened: no negotiating framework adopted, no first conference held.
- Georgia. Candidate since December 2023. The accession process is on hold over concerns about democratic backsliding.
- Turkiye. Negotiations opened in 2005 but have been frozen since 2018, with no chapters moving.
- Kosovo. Applied in December 2022. A potential candidate, candidate status not yet granted.
За чим ми стежимо
- Ukraine and Moldova have now opened two of the six clusters each. The other four have not opened. We will watch for any further openings before the EU's summer break, and record each one only when the Commission confirms it.
- Albania's first closures fall outside the fundamentals cluster, where rule of law and the judiciary sit. Progress there is the real test of its timeline. We will record the next chapters it closes as the Commission publishes them.
- Montenegro. With 18 of 33 chapters closed, the next milestone is the drafting of its accession treaty, which member states have agreed to begin. No treaty text has been published yet, so we hold this until one appears.
Отримуйте на пошту
Щотижневий огляд безкоштовний. Один випуск щонеділі: що змінилося в усіх десяти країнах-кандидатах, кожне твердження з посиланням на первинне джерело ЄС, а кожен прогноз показано як діапазон. Ми ніколи не продаємо вашу адресу, і відписатися можна одним кліком.
Стежити за окремими країнами
Отримуйте етапи конкретної країни на пошту. Оберіть країну, щоб налаштувати сповіщення.
ЧорногоріяАлбаніяМолдоваУкраїнаСербіяПівнічна МакедоніяБоснія і ГерцеговинаГрузіяТуреччинаКосово
Джерела
- European Commission: EU opens accession negotiations with Ukraine on external relations policies (14 Jul 2026) ↗
- European Commission: EU and Moldova start negotiations on external relations policies (14 Jul 2026) ↗
- European Commission: Albania and EU provisionally close negotiations on science and research, education and culture, and external relations (14 Jul 2026) ↗
- European Commission: EU and Montenegro close accession negotiations on competition policy and customs union (14 Jul 2026) ↗